Japan Records Largest Population Decline in History
Tokyo – Japan’s population experienced its most significant annual drop on record, with the number of Japanese citizens falling by 898,000 to 120.3 million as of October 2024, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. This marks the 13th consecutive year of decline for the non-foreign population and the 14th year of overall population reduction, including foreign residents, which totaled 123.8 million after a decrease of 550,000.
The unprecedented decline, the largest since comparable data collection began in 1950, is driven by Japan’s persistently low birth rate—one of the world’s lowest—and a high death rate. In 2023, Japan recorded a record low of 730,000 births and a record high of 1.58 million deaths, resulting in a natural population drop of 890,000. Only Tokyo and Saitama prefectures saw population increases, while Akita prefecture in northern Honshu experienced the steepest decline. Japan’s population has been shrinking since its peak of 128.1 million in 2008, a trend exacerbated by a fertility rate of 1.2 births per woman, well below the 2.1 needed for population stability.
The demographic shift poses significant challenges, including a shrinking workforce and reduced consumer base, impacting industries like agriculture and construction, where the average worker is increasingly elderly. The working-age population (15–64) dropped to 73.73 million, or 59.6% of the total, compared to 62.3% in the United States. The proportion of those aged 75 and older reached 20.78 million, or 16.8%, highlighting Japan’s aging crisis. This strains the social security system, with projections estimating a 10% reduction in tax and insurance revenue by 2040.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi acknowledged the crisis, noting that economic constraints prevent many young people from starting families. “The declining birth rate continues because many who wish to raise children cannot fulfill their wishes,” he said. The government is promoting measures to raise wages, expand childcare, and support parents, aiming to create a society where people can have and raise children with confidence.
In 2023, then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida pledged 3.5 trillion yen ($25 billion) annually for childcare, education, and parental support, including expanded child allowances and subsidies. Recent policies include a four-day workweek for Tokyo’s state employees starting in April 2025 and allowing parents with young children to leave work two hours early with a pay cut. Japan has also eased immigration rules to address labor shortages, with foreign residents surpassing 3 million for the first time in 2023, though strict policies limit long-term integration.
Despite these efforts, experts question their effectiveness, as policies often target existing families rather than addressing broader societal factors like high living costs, long work hours, and gender-biased work cultures that discourage marriage and childbirth. Ryuichi Kaneko, a demographer at Meiji University, attributed the severe birth rate decline to a postwar societal focus on economic priorities, which devalued care-related work and placed disproportionate burdens on women. Projections suggest Japan’s population could fall to 87 million by 2070, with 40% aged 65 or older, underscoring the urgency of reversing the trend before the 2030s.
